1. Futures premium spot

The spot price of coke has started six consecutive rounds of 50 yuan/ton increase in the past month, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton. The main futures contract 2101 has soared from 1,900 yuan/ton before the National Day to above 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 500 yuan/ton, which has already reflected the increase in goods. In the past week, it has risen by more than 11%, and the price has exceeded 2,400 yuan/ton. From the perspective of technical form, there is strong pressure in the previous high of 2500-2700 yuan/ton.

2. The imbalance between coking profit and profit per ton of steel

With the six rounds of accumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton in coke spot since May, the profit per ton of steel has been significantly squeezed, and has so far been emptied. Coking profits have soared more than 500 yuan/ton due to the continuous increase in coke prices in the past two months. The profit of the steel mill entered the negative region as early as June 4, and it was reported at -454.28 yuan/ton in the week of September 18. After the recent downturn in iron ore prices and the repair of rebar prices, the profit loss per ton of steel The value has been restored to -200.01 yuan/ton.

3. The coal-coke ratio is seriously unbalanced

Coke spot prices continued to rise, while the price of coking coal did not follow the rise. The coal-to-coke ratio expanded to the high of 1.85:1 on November 6, far exceeding the normal level of 1.4:1. The disk gross profit has recently expanded significantly, and it reported at a high of 591 yuan/ton on November 6, close to the historical record in mid-2018. After the rapid increase in profits, there is a need for adjustment.