From mid-January to the end of February, the domestic thermal coal market price plummeted, changing from the previous tightness to the looseness. The spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port dropped from the highest point of over 1100 yuan/ton to about 570 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 50%. After the Spring Festival, the weather, railway and road transportation conditions and other uncertain factors affecting the arrival of raw coal from coking companies have weakened or disappeared. Considering the need to reduce costs, steel coking companies generally adopted the strategy of reducing the inventory after the holiday. The enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal has decreased, putting pressure on the sales of coking coal in individual areas, and the price of coking coal has been loosened. Although the inventory of Bohai Rim ports is still high, due to the recent surge in thermal coal futures, some traders’ purchase demand has been stimulated, and due to the accelerated recovery of industrial power consumption, daily consumption remains high. Coal demand is expected to be prosperous, and some users The volume of tenders has increased, leading to a tentative rise in coal prices. On March 31, Fengkuang's thermal coal price was set at 725 yuan/ton for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qingang and 644 yuan/ton for 5000 kcal thermal coal in Qingang. On April 1, the overall price of mining enterprises in Inner Mongolia continued to increase by 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, and market transactions were relatively good.

Industry insiders believe that China is ahead of the world in controlling the epidemic and resuming production, showing huge institutional advantages and economic resilience. Industrial economic growth will play a more powerful role in driving energy demand; it is expected that the domestic coal market will show up in April as a whole. "The off-season is not weak", and May and June will improve further, and prices will rise and stabilize.

The upturn in the macro-economy boosts the coal market

Since the beginning of this year, the macro economy has been in a stage of strong recovery. The overall preference for industrial electricity demand, and the relatively strong demand for coal consumption in terminal industries such as cement and chemical industries have benefited the domestic coal market.

It is understood that in March, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.9%, 56.3%, and 55.3%, respectively, up 1.3, 4.9, and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that my country’s economy as a whole Continue the expansion trend. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of enterprise production accelerated, and the manufacturing industry rebounded significantly in March. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 17 industries is above the line of prosperity and decline, and the economic outlook has expanded compared with February.

The production index and the new order index were 53.9% and 53.6% respectively, up 2.0 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the pace of manufacturing production and demand expansion has accelerated.

Import and export return to the economic zone. After the Spring Festival, the release of production and demand in the domestic market accelerated, coupled with the continued recovery of the world’s major economies, the new export order index and import index in March were 51.2% and 51.1%, respectively, 2.4 and 1.5 percentage points higher than in February, of which the import index rose To the highest point in recent years.

The prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. In March, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.7%, 51.6%, and 50.4%, which were 0.5, 2.0, and 2.1 percentage points higher than that in February, respectively. The production and operation conditions of enterprises of different sizes have improved.

From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing are 53.9% and 52.9%, respectively, which are 2.0 and 1.0 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. New momentum continues to play a leading role in the development of the manufacturing industry. At the same time, the employment index of the two industries rose to 51.2% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating that the demand for labor in related industries has increased.

In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, 4.9 percentage points higher than in February, and the pace of non-manufacturing expansion accelerated. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting and television satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, currency and financial services is operating at a high level of above 60.0%. At the same time, the construction industry has returned to the high level of prosperity. The business activity index of the construction industry in March was 7.6 percentage points higher than that in February, rising to 62.3%. In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.3%, which was 3.7 percentage points higher than that in February, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises accelerated this month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index are 53.9% and 56.3%, respectively.

Fundamental and policy factors support coal prices

Recently, safety inspections in major coal-producing areas have been strictly enforced. Coal mines in the Ordos area of Inner Mongolia strictly supply invoices according to their approved production capacity. Some small mines are tightly supplied, and downstream procurement is more enthusiastic. Queuing in the mining area is more serious, and there is basically no coal on the site. Coal prices in Yulin area rose by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, and coal prices in Ordos continued to rise. Coal production in Shanxi and Shaanxi is generally stable, and coal prices at pitheads are stable and strong.

In the context of strict restriction on ticket production in upstream coal mines, the release of coal production capacity is limited. And with the approaching of the spring centralized overhaul of the Daqin line in April, the expected tightening of coal supply in Hong Kong is expected to increase, which will accelerate the release of some downstream procurement requirements. At the end of March, coal prices continued to rise slightly.

Under the current supply and demand conditions, the Bohai Rim Port and the Second Port have seen a slight decline in inventory, coupled with the accelerated recovery of industrial power consumption and the difficulty of high daily consumption of power plants. In order to cope with the increase in demand in May and June, downstream power plants may make supplements in advance. Library.

At the same time, the coastal coal market is optimistic. In terms of ports, the downstream search for goods is active, the demand is good, the sellers are reluctant to sell them, and the quotations continue to rise. It is difficult to buy goods at low prices in the downstream, and the receiving price is gradually increasing. The recent 5500 kcal thermal coal quotation is 690 yuan/ton ~ 700 yuan The transaction price is about 685 yuan/ton to 690 yuan/ton, the price of 5000 kcal thermal coal is about 600 yuan/ton to 610 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of low-sulfur coal is about 600 yuan/ton. Further stronger.

As the price of thermal coal futures has risen sharply, and the space for arbitrage in futures has expanded, traders have a high price sentiment, which has released some demand for spot purchases, which in turn drives spot prices to rise in the off-season. At present, international coal freight rates continue to rise, and market chartering capacity is diverted, and subsequent freight rates are more likely to continue to rise.

At present, heavy rainfall in New South Wales, Australia affects coal production and transportation, boosting coal prices in Indonesia and South Africa. In addition, Indonesia is about to enter Ramadan. Industry insiders are optimistic about the coal market and believe that the domestic coal market will continue to improve.