Coal prices are at a high level. According to the analysis of a number of coal price indexes this week (April 19-25), the rise in coal prices has narrowed; in the downstream wait and see, port market sentiment is weak, and traders hold high prices before the holiday In the case of surplus mentality, more shipments. Next week (April 26-May 2), there is a risk that coal prices will fall from a high level.

One, downstream resistance spreads. Yesterday, coal prices in Yulin area once again set a record high. The price quotation of coal mines in production in Yulin area has reached 700 yuan/ton, and the quotation of individual high-quality coal types is close to 800 yuan/ton. The Zhangjiamao bidding results showed that compared with the previous period, the highest transaction price of raw coal increased by 137 yuan/ton, and the price of blended coal increased by 107 yuan/ton. The current excessively high coal price has hindered the pace of purchase by traders, and the original purchase plan has been postponed due to the excessively high coal price. Many power plants, steel, cement and other terminal companies have stopped purchasing Shaanxi coal and turned to Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places.

Second, high coal prices have hindered the release of some demand. Some traders and coal yards in the terminal are also unable to operate due to the current high prices, so shipments have been suspended. Five days ago, the power company had an internal meeting and asked its power plants to make every effort to pull the long-term cooperation agreement. In the case of maintenance of some units, maintain the current amount of coal in storage, reduce the purchase of high-priced market coal, in an attempt to suppress coal prices; and replenish inventory time. Delayed until the end of April or the beginning of May before coal prices have fallen. The power plant’s wishful thinking has made a noise, and the price cuts have come as scheduled. Both upstream and downstream are well aware that this round of high coal prices is inevitable.

Third, The constraints on coal production capacity are gradually lifted, and the tight supply is expected to ease. The sharp rise in coal prices in the Yulin area this time has something to do with the limited coal production capacity in the Shenmu and Wushenqi areas in mid-to-late April. The Shenmu area coal mine will officially start the May coal metering ticket on the 26th, and the Wushenqi maintenance coal mine will end the maintenance and resume production at the end of April. At present, coal prices in some producing areas have begun to fall, and port coal prices may soon enter a downward channel. In addition, the spring intensive repair of the Daqin line is expected to end one day earlier, and the shipment volume will gradually recover.

It is also understood that on April 23, the superior authority held a guarantee meeting for the third time this month. The meeting requested:

1. Major coal companies such as Shenhua and China Coal will organize production and ensure supply while ensuring safety.

2. It is necessary to ensure that the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port is increased to more than 5 million tons (currently 4 million tons), so as to give full play to the role of Qin Port in stabilizing prices.

3. It is necessary to introduce a plan for increasing production in the Ordos region as soon as possible to speed up the release of advanced production capacity. The Inner Mongolia region has the potential to increase production. By increasing the quantity of high-quality resources, the reliable supply of coal can be increased to meet the coal demand of the power, building materials and other industries.