In March, port prices bottomed out and rebounded, with a cumulative monthly increase of 154 tons/yuan, and a cumulative monthly increase of 114 yuan/ton for high-calorie coal from Datong. In terms of main producing areas, although new coal pipe tickets were released at the beginning of the month in Shaanxi and Mongolia, under the influence of safety and environmental inspections, the release of most mines was limited, and the overall output was tight. Affected by inspections and inverted working faces, Shanxi coal mines had a slight operating rate decline. Coal mine sales in the overall production area are hot, downstream industrial enterprises and terminal power companies are actively replenishing their warehouses, coal mines have unabated queues for coal carts, and prices continue to rise.

In addition, the reduction in imported coal has a boosting effect on domestic coal prices. Ramadan in Indonesia affects coal production, and the supplement of imported coal is limited. The flooding in Australia has affected production and delivery to a certain extent. Countries such as India and Japan have shifted their purchase demand for imported coal to Indonesia. With the increase in purchases, the price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen sharply. On April 13, Indonesia will enter the month of Ramadan, which will have an impact on coal production and transportation. Based on the experience of previous years, during Ramadan, Indonesia's coal production will be reduced by approximately 10-20%. The reduction in the supply of imported coal will aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic coal market. It is expected that the reduction in the supply of imported coal this month will promote the improvement of the domestic coal market.

Another positive factor is the overhaul of the Daqin line. In previous years, before the spring inspection of the Daqin line, power plants were actively pulling coal, prompting the ports and power plants to maintain high inventories. Therefore, during the spring maintenance period, users were not in a hurry. The number of anchored ships decreased and coal prices fell. But it’s hard to say this year. Before the overhaul started, the Qinhuangdao Port’s inventory had dropped to 4.43 million tons, which was less than the coal stockpiled last winter; and the daily consumption of the power plant was still at a high level, and the decline was small. It is expected that after the overhaul begins, the number of ships in the port will increase, and the price of coal will increase in the second half of the overhaul.

Although this week, Bohai Rim ports increased pallets, high-priced coal decreased, and the growth rate narrowed; however, downstream power plants have low inventory and high daily consumption, and there is still an expectation of replenishment. Although the northern coal-fired heating season ended in April, coal consumption decreased; but favorable factors for the coal market still exist. The supply guarantee policy is gradually withdrawn, and security inspections in the main production areas are superimposed. The coal price at pitheads will remain high. At this time, downstream The demand for replenishment of power plants is still there, and the macro-economy drives the growth of social power consumption. At present, the marginal demand for coal in my country's coastal areas has improved, and power plants still have replenishment demand; the rainy season has not yet arrived, and the load of thermal power generation is not low. The overall thermal coal market is not weak in the off-season. In the later period, with the advancement of my country's safeguarding economic policies, it is expected that thermal power generation will continue to grow, thus forming a strong support for the rise of thermal coal prices. In summary, entering mid-to-late April, the contradiction between supply and demand in my country's coal market will continue, and the price of thermal coal will rise accordingly.