Based on the comprehensive analysis of electricity load in coastal areas, coal storage in power plants, upstream shipments, coal storage in ports, and the number of anchored ships, the subsequent coal market may continue to remain in short supply, and this round of coal prices has risen more than expected. It is expected that the higher authorities may adopt measures such as price restriction or liberalization of Australian coal in the near future to curb the excessive rise of coal prices and ensure a reliable supply of coal. On January 14, a terminal user in Guangdong was allowed to clear a ship of Australian coking coal. The policy changes in the later period remain to be seen. At present, there is a pattern of near-strength and far-weak in the futures market. As the spot price rises too fast, the risk of high downside starts to appear.

The extreme cold weather and the power of industrial power consumption have driven the power consumption of southern provinces and cities to rise sharply. The daily consumption of Zhejiang Energy and Yudean exceeds 35% in the same period last year. In recent days, the weather has recovered and the daily consumption of power plants has decreased slightly, but it has remained at a high level. It is understood that the selling price (5,500 kcal) of a trader in the northern port has risen to 1,040 yuan/ton, and the quotation of individual traders has increased to 1,100 yuan/ton. The author analyzes that unless in the next one to two weeks, superiors may adopt mandatory price-limiting measures or liberalize Australian thermal coal, the seller’s market is expected to remain strong until the end of this month. At this stage, coal prices will continue to rise, and coal prices are expected to rise to 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton.

A few days ago, the State Council issued a notice to encourage employees to take vacations at the workplace in response to the joint prevention and control mechanism of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. From a local perspective, localities have also actively responded to the call. Many provinces including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other provinces have successively issued the "non-essential non-return home during the Spring Festival" initiative to encourage enterprises and institutions to arrange flexible vacations for employees. Chinese New Year on the spot. The Health Commission recommends that during the Spring Festival, all people spend the holidays at their workplaces and not go home for the New Year, so as to reduce the population flow during the Spring Festival. In this way, the Spring Festival has become a usual holiday, and many units may work overtime during the holidays, and the daily consumption of power plants will be limited during the Spring Festival. In addition, there are a number of factors that support port coal prices:

1. The foreign epidemic situation is severe and production is blocked. The domestic coastal areas such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have accepted orders from some epidemic prevention and home-based foreign trade enterprises, and industrial power consumption is supported. Many major projects in various provinces have started construction one after another, and the infrastructure market has maintained steady growth, driving the increase in demand for major coal-consuming products such as steel and building materials.

   
   

2. The super cold air causes the railway transportation capacity to decline, and affects the port coal transfer volume. Even with multiple closures, the coal inventory of Bohai Rim ports is still at a low level of 18.84 million tons, and the market is in short supply of coal for sale. Some rigid and urgently needed purchases further pushed up port prices, and transaction prices continued to hit new highs.

3. Before the holiday, upstream coal mines often maintained normal production in order to ensure safety; however, boosted by the strong demand for land sales, the supply in the pit market was insufficient and coal prices continued to rise. Due to the recent increase in the epidemic in Hebei, road transportation to Hebei has been restricted, further supporting the pit coal price.

4. After New Year's Day, most areas of my country have been continuously hit by multiple strong cold air, which has led to a sharp increase in terminal electricity consumption, and downstream replenishment needs continue to be released. Although Indonesian coal has gradually arrived in Hong Kong to enter the plant, its low number of cards and small quantity are still insufficient to meet the coal demand of coastal power plants.