Up to now, coal prices in Datong, the place of production, have fallen by 230 yuan/ton, coal prices at the port have fallen by 540 yuan/ton, and Shandong’s self-provided power plants have dropped by 300 yuan/ton. From the second half of January to the present, the prices of origin, ports, and receiving goods have all experienced a drastic decline. At present, it has been as long as one month, and coal prices have not yet bottomed out. According to industry analysts, at the end of February and early March at the latest, coal prices will bottom out, stabilize and stop falling.

Entering February, the market was stable and prices fell due to the following reasons: 1. The state-owned large mines were operating at full capacity, ensuring supply and production growth, and the long-term cooperation agreement was high. 2. The cold winter has passed, and the coldest time has passed. The load of civil electricity has dropped, especially the weather in East China and Central China has recovered significantly, and the coal consumption of power plants has decreased. 3. During the holiday period, some industrial enterprises have suspended production for holidays, and some private enterprises have holidays until the fifteenth of the first lunar month, resulting in a drop in industrial electricity load, which has not reached a high level.

Analysis of coal storage in power plants in eight coastal provinces. On January 14, there was 21.12 million tons of thermal coal inventory in key power plants in eight coastal provinces, with a daily consumption of 2.32 million tons, and the available inventory days were only 9.1 days. At that time, it was the peak of coal consumption in power plants. Subsequently, the market began to decline with the decline in daily consumption. Watersheds in the coal market began to appear, and coal prices began to fall the next day. On February 1, although the Spring Festival did not enter, due to the flat period before the holiday, the factory began to have holidays. The total coal inventory of key power plants in the eight coastal provinces was 22.462 million tons, with a daily consumption of 1.805 million tons, which can be used for 12.4 days. At this time, although the daily consumption has gone down, it is not low compared to the normal level. By February 17, the sixth day of the first month, the coal inventory of key power plants in eight coastal provinces rose to 25.819 million tons, with a daily consumption of 1.13 million tons and a usable period of 22.8 days. At this time, before dawn, the company is about to resume work and production. From the data, the daily consumption level of power plants is equivalent to half of the peak coal consumption a month ago, and there is still a certain gap from the normal level of 1.7-1.8 million tons.

In the first week after the holiday, the pit mouth and Beigang markets continued to resonate and decline, and the coal price in the Bohai Rim port market moved towards 550-560 yuan/ton. The supply level remains high under the policy of ensuring supply. The three major coal transportation railways including Daqin and Shuohuang are fully deployed, and coal storage in ports around the Bohai Sea is increasing rapidly. The demand has remained flat, and coal-pulling ships are scarce. Even the anchoring ships at Huanghua Port, which are usually a large number of ships, have dropped to more than 10 ships, showing the sluggish demand. This week, the terminal's daily consumption was low, and the terminal, Ergang, Jiangyang coal storage and coal-generating ports accumulated storage was obvious. As of yesterday, Chinese Bohai Rim, Ergang, East China, and South China ports totaled 35.2 million tons of coal, an increase of 6.4 million tons from before the holiday.

The current increase in stocks in various links and increased market pressures reflect the role played by the supply guarantee policy. At present, there are three main reasons for the reduction of coal purchases in the market: First, the daily consumption is reduced, and the later period from February to April is the traditional coal low season, passive replenishment time is long, and the purchase pressure is not great; second, the main importing country, Indonesia, the rainy season is about to pass, and shipping It will be restored, and South African coal and Russian coal will enter the domestic market; although the coal reserves in the third power plant have increased, but it has not reached a high level; in addition, the north is still in the heating period, and the state-owned large mines ensure full capacity and production, and the long-term cooperation rate is high.

The supply guarantee policy will be slowly withdrawn at the end of February and at the latest in March. At that time, large-scale state-owned mines will reduce production, coupled with the restart of the coal ticketing policy of the origin, and the tightening of security inspections before the two sessions, the supply capacity may be restricted again. If after the withdrawal of the policy of guaranteeing supply, the long-term association's fulfillment declines, and the intermediate links and terminals are unable to accumulate the inventory, the market will stop falling and stabilize. March will usher in the first round of small increases after the holiday, but the increase will not be very large.