Port coal prices have risen fast and have fallen sharply. The more they rise to high levels, the more fearful they are. And coal-producing companies and traders are also shocked, happy, and confused. They are happy that the market is so good, and they did not expect a rise of tens of yuan a day; what is shocking is that once the price of coal falls, it may be a devastating decline; The confusion is because there is no turning point in the market and cannot guess when it will fall?

Everyone can’t see where is the highest point of this round of coal price increases? When will it fall? According to media reports, experts predict that during the Spring Festival, the coal market will continue to be tight. Because of the high difficulty in residential electricity consumption due to cold weather, and the support of industrial electricity demand caused by the superimposed export rush, the daily consumption of thermal coal in coastal power plants maintains a certain degree of resilience, and it is difficult for coal prices to fall deeply. In addition, the pressure of winter epidemic prevention work has increased, and many regions have begun to advocate reducing the movement of people across provinces during the Spring Festival, and celebrating the local New Year. This may lead to faster recovery of industrial power consumption after the Spring Festival holiday than in previous years. Therefore, during the Spring Festival, even if market tension weakens, coal prices will not fall sharply, or the decline will be limited. However, the author analyzes that the following factors cannot be ignored, which determine that coal prices will inevitably fall at a high level during the Spring Festival.

1. Near the end of the month, the weather in Indonesia, which was plagued by rainfall in the previous period, improved, and shipments increased; long-distance coal arrived in South Africa, and a large amount of imported coal was about to arrive in Hong Kong; in addition, the country continued to increase imports, and both Russia and Mongolia exported coal to China. The increase has greatly eased the pressure of coal transportation from the north to the south.

2. Domestic coal mines, railways and ports have accelerated production and transportation.

The National Energy Group and other seven major coal companies collectively voiced, saying: increase market supply to prevent coal prices from rising and falling; the seven major coal companies said that under the premise of ensuring safe production, they will increase resource protection, and some coal mines will not have holidays during the Spring Festival. The railways and northern ports also actively responded to the call of superiors to speed up coal transportation; during the Spring Festival, coal transportation by railways and ports will not be affected. With the increase in supply, the increase in the number of power plants transferred, and the recovery of stocks, the enthusiasm for subsequent transportation will decline.

3. The weather in the south is getting warmer, and the civil electricity load drops.

The weather in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has recovered. In some areas, the temperature has risen to above -18 degrees Celsius. The load of civilian electricity has dropped and the daily consumption of power plants has been affected. The second cold wave had little effect on the temperature in East China. With the departure of rain and snow, the load of civil electricity was weakened, and the thermal power was reduced.

4. As the Spring Festival approaches, industrial electricity consumption has fallen.

Although all localities put forward the "non-essential non-return home during the Spring Festival" initiative, enterprises and institutions are encouraged to arrange flexible vacations for employees and celebrate the New Year on the spot. But the Spring Festival is after all a traditional festival for the Chinese people. During the Spring Festival, the decline in the operating rate of industrial enterprises is inevitable; even if some enterprises maintain production status, the production and operation time must be shortened, and the daily consumption and load reduction of power plants is inevitable, which will affect the coal consumption of power plants. To have a certain impact. From the week before the Spring Festival (February 5) to the 15th of the first lunar month (February 26), coal and electricity consumption in the south will be affected to a certain extent. It is expected that the total daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will remain At the level of 400,000 to 500,000 tons, the higher level drops by 200,000 to 300,000 tons.

To sum up, during the Spring Festival, power plant consumption is reduced and the library is passively exhausted. The coal market in February will shift from the previous short supply to a balance of supply and demand. Users will actively replenish their inventory during this time period and shift their purchase focus to Changxie coal and imported coal. The amount of coal purchases on the market will decrease, and the market coal price will appear. High fell. However, supported by industrial electricity consumption, the decline in coal prices is expected to be limited.