Under the influence of production restriction policies and boosting demand, coal futures "three brothers" coking coal, thermal coal, and coke futures all set new highs. The downstream "large coal users" represented by coal power and smelting have poor performance due to high costs. According to statistics from a reporter from the Shanghai Securities News, among the 26 listed coal-fired power companies, 17 had a year-on-year decline in profits in the first half of the year, and 5 companies were at a loss.

Tight supply pushes up coal prices

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of coking coal and coke have frequently set historical records. After breaking through the 3000 yuan/ton mark in August this year, the main coke price hit a record high of 3657.5 yuan/ton yesterday, which has risen 70% from the low point in the year. The main price of coking coal has risen by as much as 78% during the year.

As of yesterday's close, the main coke contract was 3655.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.28%; the main coking coal contract closed at 2907.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.37%; the main thermal coal contract closed at 985.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.23%.

The China Coal Industry Association recently issued the "Circular on the Operation of Coal Economy in the First Half of 2021", showing that coal prices have been running at a high level in the first half of 2021. From January to July, the average long-term contract price was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan/ton year-on-year.

What causes coal prices to rise and rise again? From the supply side, due to factors such as safety and environmental protection, the overall output of domestic main producing areas is still low. Recently, coal mines in main producing areas have launched large-scale investigation and remediation activities, and the coal market supply may be further reduced. tight. On the demand side, downstream coking and steel companies are not diminishing in their enthusiasm for purchasing raw coal, and coking companies still have difficulties in replenishing the supply of some coal types that are in short supply.

Speaking of the coal market this year, the person in charge of a listed coal company in Shanxi called out "demand exceeds expectations." According to the person in charge, although there is still some time before the heating season, under the situation of tightly balanced coal supply and demand this year and a sharp increase in prices, the company has followed the production control policy to actively produce and accelerate the release of coal production capacity.

Downstream "big coal users" are under pressure

Hubei Energy recently stated frankly on the investment platform: “The increase in coal prices has a greater negative impact on the company.” It stated in the semi-annual report that the company’s thermal power companies’ power generation has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but the increase in fuel costs has made thermal power companies’ income increase rather than profit. Gross profit margin has dropped significantly, and profits have dropped significantly year-on-year under the condition of operating income growth.

It is reported that under cost pressure, many coal-fired power generation companies have begun to call for an increase in electricity prices. According to the person in charge of a power generation company in the central region, the high coal price this year has caused great damage to the company's performance. The staff of the Huaneng International Securities Department said that the current shortage of electricity in various places and the high cost of coal, electricity prices directly affect the company's revenue.

According to data from the China Electricity Council, the loss of coal power companies in the first half of the year has significantly expanded. Some power generation groups have lost more than 70% of coal power companies, and the coal power sector is losing money as a whole.

In addition, Conch Cement stated that the company's profit fell due to the sharp increase in coal prices and the year-on-year increase in production costs. Conch Cement achieved revenue of 80.433 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.68%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.96%.

Evergreen Group stated on the interactive platform on September 2 that in order to cope with the recent increase in coal prices, the company has begun pilot projects, such as improving the equipment efficiency of the project and reducing coal consumption through technological transformation, and trying its best to control the increase in coal prices. Increased cost.

In the face of rising coal prices, relevant departments have repeatedly taken control measures. According to the author's understanding, under intensive policy control, a number of large state-owned enterprises and group coal mines in Inner Mongolia have recently begun to cut prices, and thermal coal futures have also seen a slight correction.