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Coal market supply and demand maintain a tight balance this summer

Jun. 24, 2021

On the upstream side, under the influence of factors such as safety supervision, environmental protection, and land, the release of coal production capacity in the main producing areas is not as good as expected, and coal supply is expected to be small in June. In addition, mine accidents still occur. As Daqing is approaching, safety supervision has been further increased, and it is difficult to increase production and volume in the short term. When coal demand is optimistic and supply is insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent; in the second half of the month, the market will continue to improve and coal prices will be supported.

Coal market supply and demand maintain a tight balance this summer

On the upstream side, the coal mine safety situation is severe, and some coal mines in Yulin have been overhauled, and supply is tight; while downstream chemical plants and other terminal stocks are in urgent need, procurement is active, and coal sales are in short supply. Although the local price-limiting policy is strict and the prices of major coal companies are stable, the prices of some private mines are still rising. A few days ago, there were market news that caught people's attention. First, a major mine issued a notice to suspend land sales during July 1; then, it suddenly corrected the next day. In addition, some coal mines have been overhauled, stopped production, and stopped selling. Affected by factors such as mine earthquakes and rainfall, coal supply in the Ordos region has shrunk, daily coal road sales have shown a downward trend, and the number of outbound transportation on the Zhangtang Line is at a low level. The market in northern Shanxi is relatively stable, the sales of high-calorie high-quality coal are relatively optimistic, and the price is stable. From the perspective of the overall situation of the thermal coal market, the market supply and demand pattern has not changed much, and the fundamentals remain strong.


Regarding coal imports, although some provinces have lifted restrictions on coal imports, Indonesian coal is very scarce this month, and it is hard to find a ship on the market. The number of other importing countries is also limited. It is expected that the increase in the amount of imported coal this month will be limited. ; The imported coal market is temporarily maintaining stable operation, and the quotation is basically the same as before the holiday. With no increase in production at the pit and no improvement in railway shipments, as the daily consumption of the Southern Power Plant has reached a high level, the supply and demand gap in the coastal areas remains, and the Bohai Rim port inventory is reduced by 150,000 to 200,000 tons per day.


In terms of ports, the market continued to be strong, and traders' quotations increased. Due to rising prices at origins and higher arrival costs, traders are generally optimistic about the market outlook, and their quotations have risen slightly. Some traders are reluctant to sell their goods. The price of coal in the market with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 950-960 yuan/ton, and the price of 5000 kcal is at 850-860 yuan/ton. The daily consumption of power plants has continued to rise and hit a new high in the near future. The demand for replenishment has been released. The acceptance of power plants of some small households and long-term cooperatives in the downstream has increased, and the market trend has been strong. At this stage, although power plants are replenishing the inventory in stages, the consumption of thermal coal is also accelerating, and the overall inventory level is still low. The "peak summer" is imminent, and subsequent demand will continue to be optimistic; at present, the coal supply in the market is still tightening, and the superimposed shipping costs are high, and the coal market will continue to operate strongly.


With the sustained and stable recovery of the macro economy in the later period, my country's coal demand will remain strong, and the characteristics of coal consumption in the off-season and the peak season will be more obvious. The demand for coal will maintain a relatively rapid growth, and the intensity of supply is expected to be further strengthened, and the increase in supply may increase; this summer, the supply and demand of the coal market may maintain a tight balance.


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