The overall coal price is stable and declining, mainly because the traders and the downstream have the expectation of increasing production after Daqing. In addition, the concentration of imported coal to Hong Kong reduces the psychological pressure, increases the base gas, reduces the coal purchase in the market, and observes the increase of production and the change of coal price after Daqing. Considering the market's expectation of increasing production, as well as the fear of price and the worry about the later policy, most traders dare not continue to purchase and ship. There are also consignors who store coal in the early stage, in order to deal with the later variables, take the initiative to reduce the sales price, leading to a drop in the port price.

Since last week, the inventory of Beigang has gone through a week of rapid destocking. The inventory of QinGang has dropped to 4.26 million tons, and that of Caofeidian four ports is 8.56 million tons; Coupled with serious shipping upside down, the Bohai Rim port inventory may continue to fall. Starting from last Friday, the port coal price stabilized, stopped falling and returned to the rational level slightly. This week, the upstream coal mines are going back to work one after another, but with the coal price upside down, the traffic flow to Hong Kong is general, and the downstream coal mines are still waiting for the situation to be clear. At present, the release of production capacity in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Ordos is relatively stable, and it is difficult to increase too much. In some areas, the restriction of coal management ticket has not been released. Therefore, the increase of main production capacity will be put on the newly opened and newly restored coal mines; However, it will take about 2-3 months for the newly approved open-pit coal mines with temporary land acquisition to form production capacity, which can not form effective supply during the peak coal consumption in summer. At present, it is difficult for the supply side to increase too much, and the delivery situation of Daqin line and Zhangtang line is not ideal. However, in July, with the addition of Baihetan Hydropower Station, hydropower generation is likely to reach the peak value, which is still higher than that in June, and the pressure on thermal power is increasing. Some power plants rely on changxiehe to import coal, and burn some leftover materials and slime, so there are still breathing and wait-and-see opportunities.

The imported coal is not optimistic. The high temperature drives the power demand of neighboring countries to increase, and the international steam coal price is approaching a historical high. The long-term rainfall has hindered the coal production in South Kalimantan, Indonesia; In addition, Indonesia's domestic epidemic situation is serious. Due to the delay of shipment due to the epidemic situation, Indonesia's export port only works eight hours a day, which aggravates everyone's worry about tight supply. In addition, with the rising price of high calorie coal in Australia, India and other buyers have begun to turn to Indonesia's low calorie coal, which also aggravates the tension of Indonesian coal.

In July, the temperature of the whole country is on the high side all the year round, and there may be periodic high temperature heat waves in Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan and other places. In addition, the economy continues to recover, and the main indicators run in a reasonable range. Considering the low base caused by continuous rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the same period last year, experts predict that the electricity consumption of the whole society in July will increase by about 12% year on year.

Since last week, all parties in the market have been in a tense wait-and-see period, all of them are dumb, the market transaction is calm, and the purchase of terminal power plants is mostly delayed. It is expected that with the continuous increase of civil power load and the acceleration of production in building materials, smelting and other industries, the demand for downstream procurement will increase; In the middle of the month, the deadlock in the coal market was broken.