In November, driven by the tight expectations of long products, steel prices in the domestic market showed a clear upward trend, steel production also increased, the intensity of demand for iron ore rose, and prices rose from falling to rising. As the fundamentals of the market are still in a situation of oversupply, it is difficult for the iron ore price to continue to rise in the later period and it will show a slight fluctuation.

21, China's iron ore price index turned from falling to rising

According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of November, the China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 319.34 points, an increase of 5.11 points month-on-month, or an increase of 1.63%. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index was 320.56 points, a decrease of 10.00 points month on month, or a decrease of 3.03%; the imported iron ore price index was 319.10 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.96 points, or an increase of 2.56%.

From the perspective of the whole month, the average value of the CIOPI composite index in November was 311.49 points, a decrease of 14.02 points from the previous month and a decrease of 4.31%. Among them: the average domestic iron ore price index was 323.15 points, a decrease of 9.11 points from the previous month, a decrease of 2.74%; the average value of the imported iron ore price index was 309.29 points, a decrease of 14.94 points, or a decrease of 4.61%.

Twenty-two, the price of imported fines has risen, and the price of domestic iron ore has fallen

At the end of November, the tax-included price of domestically produced iron ore concentrates of CIOPI was 705.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 22.01 yuan / ton, or 3.03%; the CIF price of imported CIOPI fines was 86.19 US dollars / ton, which was an increase of 2.15 US dollars / ton, a rise It is 2.56%, which is different from the domestic iron ore concentrate price trend.

Looking at the situation for the whole month: the average tax-included price of domestic iron ore concentrates was 710.70 yuan / ton, a decrease of 22.04 yuan / ton from the previous month, a decrease of 2.74%; the average CIF price of imported fine ore was US $ 83.54 / ton, compared with last month. Down by 4.03 US dollars / ton, down by 4.61%.

III. Later iron ore price trend

Analysis Driven by rising steel prices, steel output has increased, and the intensity of iron ore demand has increased. However, restricted by the fundamentals of oversupply, it is difficult for iron ore prices to continue to rise in the later period, which will show a slight fluctuation.

1. Iron and steel production rose month-on-month, and iron ore demand strength has increased.

According to statistics from the Iron and Steel Association, the national daily output of crude steel was 2.467 million tons in the first half of November, an increase of 0.65% from the previous month. The daily output of pig iron increased by 2.175 million tons from the previous month. 2.84%. Affected by weaker demand in the later period and the production limitation measures in the heating season, it is expected that there will not be a large increase in steel output and a limited increase in the intensity of demand for iron ore.

  2. The deposits of imported iron ore ports decreased slightly, and the iron ore market was still relatively loose. 

At the end of November, the inventory of imported iron ore ports nationwide was 123 million tons, a decrease of 4.53 million tons or 3.53%. Although the stock of Hong Kong has changed from rising to falling, it is still the second highest level since the second half of the year. It was the second highest level of iron ore imports in October, which was 9.286 million tons, down 6.5% from the previous month. %, A year-on-year increase for 4 consecutive months. Overall, the supply and demand of the iron ore market is still relatively loose.

  3. Steel prices have risen and dropped, making it difficult for iron ore prices to continue to rise

According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of November, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 108.17 points, an increase of 3.67% from the previous month, mainly due to the rise in the prices of long products such as rebar and other types of steel. Recently, due to the expected drop in the market outlook, the price of steel products has declined, and the intensity of iron ore demand will also decline. Iron ore prices are unlikely to continue to rise, and will continue to fluctuate slightly.