Logical Analysis of China's Nickel Resources Supply and Demand in the Post-epidemic Period

As the consumption of nickel in the stainless steel sector accounts for 61% of the total consumption of nickel metal, and the consumption of metal alloys accounts for 22%, coupled with the rapid growth of China's stainless steel industry and the development of ternary battery materials, the market price of nickel metal has fluctuated upwards since 2016. Early 2020. Especially after the Indonesian mining ban in 2019, the expectation that both ends of supply and demand may not match has inspired nickel prices to show a "demon nickel" market, and the price peak once exceeded 18,000 US dollars/ton. Later, due to the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, along with the general decline in commodity prices, the price of nickel has dropped below the 50th digit line of nickel sulfide production costs to 10,915 US dollars/ton (according to the statistics of major nickel sulfide manufacturers in the world, According to the price-cost percentile analysis method, the 40th, 60th, and 80th quantile lines of the global nickel sulfide mines in production are 9100 USD/ton, 11100 USD/ton and 12600 USD/ton respectively).

It is expected that from 2020 to 2025, nickel prices will continue to be strong under the stimulus of Chinese stainless steel and ternary battery materials. The overall momentum is good, but the price peak will not exceed the previous high of 18,000 US dollars/ton. Affected by the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, nickel prices are expected to reach a basic equilibrium globally in 2020, and the average annual nickel price may be near the 80th quartile of global nickel production, which is 12,600 US dollars/ton. It is estimated that the average annual nickel prices from 2021 to 2025 are US$14,000/ton, US$14,300/ton, US$13,900/ton, US$13,800/ton, and US$13,500/ton.