China Coal Association: downward pressure on coal price increases
May. 20, 2020
Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic was affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China from 1 to April, the report released by China Coal Industry Association in May 14th showed that the coal inventory increased and the price dropped significantly. On May 6, the market price of coal reached 475 yuan / ton, 84 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the year, 142 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year, falling below the "green range" of medium and long-term contract price.
According to the analysis of the report, in terms of supply, with the situation of epidemic prevention and control getting better, all regions accelerated the resumption of production. Major production areas and large-scale coal enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Xinjiang have basically resumed production and reached production capacity, and the release rate of coal production capacity far exceeds the growth rate of coal demand. Meanwhile, in the first four months, coal imports increased year on year 26.9% A large number of coal imports aggravate the structural surplus of the coal market.
From the perspective of demand, coal demand in the second quarter will be significantly higher than that in the first quarter, but the role of non fossil energy substitution will also be significantly enhanced, which will squeeze and weaken part of coal demand. On the whole, the decline of coal consumption demand in the second quarter was narrowed. However, the supply and demand of the market will remain loose, and the downward pressure on coal prices will increase.
The report predicts that in the second half of the year, with the steady progress of "six stability" and "six guarantees" and the effectiveness of relevant policies, the industrial and economic growth rate will return to its proper level, and the total demand for coal will be better than that in the first half of the year.