Before terminal demand returns to normal levels

In the short term, the bifocal disk is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to avoid chasing ups and downs. You can place more orders on dips and lighten up on rallies. In terms of contract selection, the long safety margin of the Coke 2109 contract is higher than that of the 2105 contract.

Over the weekend, news about production restrictions and emission reductions in Tangshan began to ferment. After the opening of the market on Monday, the double coke fell sharply, and the coking coal fell below the previous support level of 1,450 yuan/ton. On Tuesday, the coal washing plants in Jinquan and Wuyuan regions temporarily suspended production for one month, plus Inner Mongolia In principle, the new production capacity of coking will no longer be approved, and the dual coke has rebounded strongly. The author believes that the increase in the price of bifocals is on the surface boosted by the good news, but in essence it is an oversold rebound.

The trend of coal char has been weak since the beginning of the year

Since the beginning of this year, the trend of dual coke as the raw material side has been weak. The reasons can be attributed to three aspects: First, the policy of reducing crude steel output at the end of last year is negative for the raw material side, while iron ore support is strong, and steel mills have increased their support. Because of the pressure of coke, since the beginning of this year, the trend of double coke has been weaker than that of iron ore. Second, the profit of steel coke continues to be unbalanced, and terminal demand after the Spring Festival is sluggish. Five rounds of reduction; third, steel mills' double coke inventory has been replenished to a normal level, increasing the steel mills' confidence in the improvement. In addition, before the Spring Festival, the coking coal replenishment at the coking plant was sufficient. Currently, it is experiencing a seasonal downturn. The demand for coking coal purchases has decreased. However, the domestic coking coal production has increased, coal mines accumulate more quickly, and the superimposed port Australian coal vessel unloading has increased. Customs clearance is expected, the fundamental support of coking coal is weaker than that of coke in the near future, which is also reflected in the disk.

Weak Reality and Strong Expectation Game

Futures price trends can be divided into three types as a whole: when reality and expectation are both long, the two resonate, and the price rises rapidly in the short term; when reality and expectation are both short, the price resonates and falls; when reality and expectation diverge, The disk is the embodiment of the game between the two, and is the result of their combined force. When reality and expectation diverge, the expectation is too large and the actual demand cannot keep up. The price is likely to make up for the fall. If the reality and the expectation are too close, risks will be released and the safety margin of long (short) will be increased. The expected landing will make up the rise (complement the fall). Under normal circumstances, the greater the divergence, the greater the amplitude of oscillation, and the more suitable the disk is to sell high and buy low. This is the current situation.

The global recovery is expected to push up commodity prices. After the Spring Festival, non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals rose sharply one after another, which in turn boosted the black series. However, the reality of the industry is that the accumulation of materials is faster, the apparent demand is lower than expected, and it takes time for the demand to start. The market generally predicts that after the Spring Festival, the spot price will fall by 3-5 rounds. At present, expectations have been reflected on the disk, and the price of 1,500 yuan/ton of coking coal has been overdrawn and expected to fall. Although the market has begun to argue that Australian coal may pass customs, in previous years, under the normal customs clearance of Australian coal, the price in March was 1,280 yuan/ton, and this year, demurrage costs and inflation factors have to be considered, and the valuation is 1,500 yuan/ton. It's already a low level. In comparison, the future price of rebar is about 1,100 yuan/ton higher than the same period last year, iron ore is about 500 yuan/ton higher, coke is about 400 yuan/ton higher, and coking coal is about 200 yuan/ton higher.

Avoid chasing ups and downs in the near future

In the medium to long term, the bifocal market remains optimistic. In terms of demand, due to the expected drop in spot stocks, traders have recently been less willing to replenish inventory. Once the downstream inventory turning point appears, coke prices will stop falling and stabilize, and the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills and traders will increase. However, in the short term, before terminal demand returns to normal levels, any news disturbance may cause the price of the disk to fall. The disk is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to avoid chasing ups and downs. You can place more orders on dips and lighten up positions on rallies. In terms of contract selection, the long safety margin of the Coke 2109 contract is higher than that of the 2105 contract: on the one hand, after the downstream demand starts, it is already at the end of the 2105 contract, leaving a limited time for the 2105 contract; on the other hand, the 2109 contract has a discount. Will give more than a stronger protection.