The Asian steel market is facing multiple challenges. The 20th (9th) Asian Steel Forum (9th ASF) was held in Shanghai on September 18-20. A number of industry insiders said that insufficient domestic demand, trade frictions and the international economic downturn have brought Asia's steel trade. A lot of uncertainty.

Korean and Japanese markets weakened supply and demand

The Korean economy has continued to slump in the past decade. Some analysts believe that South Korea's GDP growth rate this year or next may be at 2.2% and 2.5%. Affected by the big environment, Korean steel production has gradually declined since 2015, and steel production in 2018 is the lowest in nearly a decade.

“In 2018, South Korean steel production and import and export both performed poorly.” Heo Dae Young, director of the Research and Analysis Office of the Korea Iron and Steel Association, said that domestic steel demand in Korea was 53 million tons in 2018, down 4.6% year-on-year. The sharp drop in exports to the US has dragged down the overall export of Korean steel. In the first quarter of 2019, thanks to the advent of environmentally-friendly vehicles and the development of new industrial models, South Korea's steel production and exports have improved, but the improvement may not be sustainable.

“In 2020, the Korean steel market will generally show a weak pattern of supply and demand.” Kim Hong Sik, vice president of Steel & Steel, believes that the Korean steel industry will face four major challenges in 2020: First, South Korea has introduced more Strict environmental laws and labor safety laws will lead to an increase in production costs, which in turn will affect the competitiveness of steel product prices. Second, due to the slowdown of China's economic growth, South Korea's steel export prices to China may be curbed; third, Chinese steel companies entering the Korean market will intensify competition in the Korean domestic market; fourth, fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices will affect the industry. 

Kim Hung-soo expects that South Korea's steel output will reach 76.5 million tons in 2019, which is flat year-on-year; domestic demand is expected to drop slightly to 53.3 million tons, and exports will drop slightly to 30.7 million tons, but imports will increase from the second half of this year and are expected to increase by 9.7 from last year. %about. Steel production in 2020 will be slightly reduced to 76 million tons this year; domestic demand will increase by 1.3% to 53 million tons; due to international trade conflicts, exports will fall to 29.5 million tons, which will be the first in Korea's steel exports in five years. Less than 30 million tons. And affected by the exchange rate, the overall profit will also be greatly affected.

Steel products are one of the top ten trade products in Japan and have a strong spillover effect on other industries. In 2018, Japan's steel production ranked third in the world, Japan's steel products exports accounted for 4.2% of its total exports, ranking fourth in commodities.

“Japan faces the challenge of demographic decline, which will affect the automotive and housing markets, which in turn will affect steel and supporting industries.” SHIGERU HAGIUDA, Minister of International Trade and Market Research, Japan Iron and Steel Alliance, said that in 2030, domestic cars in Japan Sales may drop to 4.1 million vehicles per year, while housing construction will also decline, putting tremendous pressure on steel consumption. In view of this, the Japanese steel industry needs to increase research and development and improve technological innovation and service capabilities.

He said that in the future, Japan's steel demand growth point may appear in the renovation and reconstruction of old houses and the construction of disaster prevention facilities. At present, many offices and residences in Tokyo have been around for 30 years. In 2012-2032, Japan's old homes and infrastructure renovation will bring strong steel growth.