ASEAN, India steel market is worth looking forward to
Oct. 17, 2019
In the Asian market, consumption growth in ASEAN and India can bring opportunities to the steel industry.
Tan Ah Yong, secretary-general of the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Association, said at the forum that thanks to the demand for construction projects, the ASEAN Economic Community's steel consumption increased by 4.9% to 88 million tons in 2018, and production increased by 11%. The steel consumption of the six ASEAN countries showed a positive growth trend.
However, it should be noted that in 2018, the growth rate of finished steel imports in most countries of ASEAN is slowing down. “This is mainly due to the increase in domestic steel production by ASEAN countries to meet domestic demand and replace imports.” Chen Junyuan said that in 2018, Vietnam’s steel import growth rate fell by 4.4% year-on-year, making it the only ASEAN country with a continuous decline in steel imports.
Talking about the performance of the ASEAN steel industry, Steelish's research director Nishtha Mukerjee said that ASEAN's steel consumption increased by 5% in 2018. Steel exports increased by 33%, mainly to ASEAN, India, the United States and other places; steel imports increased by 3%, the main imported steel is flat steel, the main source of imports are Japan, China, South Korea and so on.
In the long run, ASEAN's steel production capacity is much higher than consumption. ASEAN local steel mainly produces long products, and flat products mainly rely on imports, so the production of flat products of ASEAN has also increased in the past two years. Chen Junyuan believes that the ASEAN steel industry will develop rapidly, steel production capacity, output and consumption will increase substantially, and export potential will be released. Investors in the region will increase their investment opportunities. Investors should pay attention to the actual demand situation in the ASEAN region, as well as the import situation of ASEAN, avoid the intensification of competition caused by excessive investment, and also pay attention to avoiding trade risks.
“In other countries, steel demand is near saturation, the Indian market still has a large demand space.” Japan’s Mita Wang executive executive director, South West Asia CRO and India general manager Shinpei Asada will present India and 1996 A comparison of China's situation suggests that the increase in disposable income and car demand in India will drive demand for sheet, flat steel and other high value-added steel. Foreign investment, IT and e-commerce in the Indian steel sector will bring many market opportunities.
There are many similarities between China and India, with huge populations, demand and growing purchasing power, which mean huge market potential. Both countries have the advantage of IT technology and can reconstruct and optimize the circulation network. "India's development will be faster than we think. By 2030, India's crude steel output will reach 250 million tons." Xinping Asada believes that the merger and reorganization of the Indian steel industry will accelerate in the next two or three decades, and high-quality steel products will increase. Through the use of IT technology, industry operations will gradually become transparent.
In 2018, India's crude steel output surpassed Japan's second place in the world. Nisita Mukherjee expects India's steel production to reach 112.5 million tons in 2019, and steel production capacity in 2020 will increase by 8% compared to 2019. In terms of imports, Indian steel imports will increase by 5% in 2019, with major sources of imports being South Korea, Japan and China.
With the implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, China Metallurgical Group has built a number of high-quality steel plants in Southeast Asia. Zhang Wei, vice president of MCC, believes that India will be the new starting point for the next round of global steel industry development. With the development of the global economy and the iteration of the industry, the Middle East and Africa will also become a rising star in the development of the steel industry.