A weekly overview of the raw material market (February 13, 2021-February 20, 2021)
Feb. 25, 2021
Last week, the domestic raw material market prices have risen steadily, and iron ore prices have risen sharply; coke prices have been generally stable. Although some steel mills have proposed to lower the coke purchase prices, coking companies have not accepted it, and coke prices will not fall in the short term; coking coal The market price is generally stable. In the case of relatively good resource supply, the latter may be stable and fall; the scrap steel market as a whole is operating strongly; the prices of main ferroalloys are stable and rise. The price changes of the main varieties are as follows:
Imported iron ore prices have risen sharply
Last week, the price of imported iron ore rose sharply. On the one hand, the overall steel price rose sharply. During the Spring Festival, iron ore was consumed and some steel mill inventories decreased, and purchases would continue in the later period. On the other hand, the US dollar monetary policy was loose and global commodities Prices are rising, and market participants still have expectations of iron ore prices. In the first week after the Spring Festival, most steel mills still focus on digesting their inventory, and there will be appropriate purchases in the near future. However, the overall increase in foreign mine shipments will appropriately reduce the expected increase. The industry considers that the iron ore market price will continue to be relatively strong. run.
Stable prices in the mainstream market of coke
During the Spring Festival holiday and after the holiday, prices in the mainstream domestic coke market remained stable, and port prices fell slightly. Affected by the festival, transportation in some areas was restricted, and the inventory of coke enterprises increased slightly, especially in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. Sales pressure increased. Traders temporarily wait and see that the supply of coke enterprises directly flows into steel mills, resulting in a significant increase in metallurgical coke inventories of steel mills in North China, and some steel mills have controlled the arrival volume. A few steel mills in Shanxi have sent a letter requesting that the price of metallurgical coke be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, but the coking company has not accepted it, and some coking companies have also sent a letter to raise the price of metallurgical coke by 100 yuan/ton, and steel coke companies have begun to compete. The inventories of southern steel mills have not risen significantly, and the holiday inventory of the leading steel mills in East China has dropped to a historical low. Recently, the inventory has been increased to about 11 days, but there is no adjustment plan for the purchase price of metallurgical coke. Due to the sharp increase in steel prices after the holiday, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces is relatively high, and the demand is relatively good, industry insiders expect the game of steel coke companies to intensify in the near future.
Stable prices in the mainstream market of coking coal
After the Spring Festival, prices in the mainstream domestic coking coal market have stabilized, with loosening in some areas. Most coal mines have resumed production one after another, and some plan to resume work and production in the near future. The mainstream acceptance price of low-sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi is 1,500 yuan/ton to 1,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton from the previous high; the price of individual coal mines (Mt14) fell sharply in the early period, and after the inventory fell, it rose by 50 yuan / Ton to 1450 yuan / ton; Changzhi low-sulfur coking coal prices plan to fall 30 yuan / ton ~ 50 yuan / ton to 1500 yuan / ton ~ 1520 yuan / ton (acceptance price). Some lean coals in Xuchang and Hebi in Henan have plans to cut prices, which are expected to range from 40 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. Recently, the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream coking companies has declined, mainly by lowering the warehouse, and the freight has mostly returned to normal levels. It is expected that the domestic coking coal price will mainly stabilize in the short term, with a partial decline.
Scrap prices are stable and strong
Last week, the domestic scrap steel market prices were stable and strong, and prices in parts of the north and east China rose sharply. The scrap purchase prices of leading steel companies in Jiangsu have not been adjusted, and the scrap prices of leading steel companies in Shandong have been raised by 80 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Prices in other regions are expected to follow up. The overall price of scrap steel in Central and Southwest China has not changed much. At present, most scrap steel processing enterprises have not returned to normal production, the market supply is scarce, and steel mills have sufficient stocks, and the momentum for rising after the Spring Festival is temporarily insufficient. Scrap steel prices in North China and Northeast China took the lead in rising sharply. The winter reserves of steel mills were low, and the prices of billets and finished products rose sharply after the holiday, which drove local scrap prices to rise. With the gradual recovery of scrap market resources and the firming of finished product prices, it is expected that the domestic scrap market prices will generally rise in the near future, ranging from 50 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton.
Ferroalloy prices are mainly rising
Last week, the market price of ferroalloys mainly rose. In terms of ordinary alloys, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were stable, and the prices of high-carbon ferrochrome rose slightly; in terms of special alloys, the prices of vanadium and ferromolybdenum rose slightly. Specifically:
The Northwest large ferrosilicon factory is temporarily not quoting. During the holiday season, the ferrosilicon enterprises are slightly exhausted. Most of them are orders that have not been delivered by the manufacturers. The overall shipment pressure is not large. The daily average ferrosilicon output of the main producing areas remains at about 17,000 tons. The document for eliminating outdated production capacity in some areas of Inner Mongolia has not yet been finalized. Industry insiders are more optimistic about the outlook for ferrosilicon. At present, steel mills have not yet launched the bidding for procurement in March. In Inner Mongolia, the electricity curtailment continues, the supply of silicomanganese manufacturers is tight, the Ningxia silicomanganese enterprises are producing normally, and some silicomanganese small and medium-sized enterprises in the south have stopped production before the Spring Festival and have not resumed production for the time being. Some merchants’ offers are in a tentative upward stage, and transactions are average; the mainstream price of raw manganese ore is stable, and the market price of silicomanganese is mainly stable in the short term. Due to the considerable profit of high-carbon ferrochrome, the main production areas in the south-Guangxi, Hunan, Guiyang and other places have accelerated the resumption of production after the holiday, which eased the tight market supply situation to a certain extent. At the same time, the import volume of high-carbon ferrochrome has increased. It is expected that the price of high-carbon ferrochromium will slow down in the short term.
The phenomenon of domestic vanadium alloy market inquiries about prices has gradually increased, and market activity has increased. Foreign vanadium prices have continued to rise. Panzhihua Iron and Steel's weekly guidance price for vanadium-nitrogen alloys has been substantially increased by 9 million yuan/ton to 165,000 yuan/ton, boosting business confidence, most manufacturers suspend quotations, and market prices are chaotic. The four major vanadium manufacturers have not yet released the long-term price agreement, and the price is expected to increase substantially. The current market resources are tight, and the vanadium-based alloy market is expected to continue to perform strongly. The domestic price of ferromolybdenum gradually rises driven by the price increase in the international market. There are many inquiries in the market, but the actual transaction is limited. Merchants of molybdenum concentrates have a strong wait-and-see attitude and prices are temporarily stable. It is expected that the ferromolybdenum market prices will continue to rise in the near future.